Wind power curtailment report analysis report in China
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Chinese wind power brownouts abandoned wind analysis report is "Energy" magazine Energy Business School research researchers took nearly two months. Unlike in the past, we are not exactly the "abandoned wind brownouts", placed in an incremental and sales of wind power industry chain to do the analysis, more is to place the entire power structure, the regional characteristics of the background under the different regions of the variables were analyzed in order to identify common problems and personalization around the face.
We hope that through Inner Mongolia, Jilin, Gansu, more than 10 provinces, nearly five years of data summarized and analyzed, to tease out an abandoned Chinese wind power wind list. Be able to find one of the new changes arising out of the abandoned wind, but these changes were involved in the body and has a kind of relationship. At the same time, be able to make the appropriate predict the future development of the wind power industry.
Through seminars, field research and collate and analyze large amounts of data, analysis, etc., are summarized various aspects of the data. We have organized industry experts, corporate participation in the first phase of the energy business school salon specializing brownouts discussed on abandoned wind under the new situation.
At the same time, we have in-depth domestic wind power the most concentrated area - Baicheng conduct visits to research; For the use of the data, we combine the National Energy Administration, China's Circular Economy Renewable Energy Association special committee (the English abbreviation: CREIA) , Chinese wind Energy Association (English abbreviation: CWEA) data and other institutions systematically combing and analysis. Depending on the year and provinces abandoned wind ratios were ranked.
Through the past five years, more than 10 provinces and data analysis, difficult to find in recent years, domestic wind power wind power rationing abandoned fields, mainly in the rich tradition of the wind resource, installed capacity centralized "Three North" region. Among them, Jilin, Inner Mongolia and Gansu is the most concentrated area of abandoned wind, the highest discard rate of 20% or more wind.
From the data analysis, the installed capacity of wind power last year, second only to 2011, while the country has approved 413 new wind power projects, the new capacity of 30.95 million kilowatts, which is part of the installed capacity will focus on the release this year. To this end, we have reason to worry: in 2014 the country abandoned the pressure of wind power rationing would be larger than in 2013.
From the National Energy Board released nationwide in the first quarter of 2014 wind power and network operation situation, the national total of 4.847 billion kwh of wind abandoned, abandoned wind rate reached 11.7%, a slight increase over 2013 of 11%. Rates on priority ranking of provinces abandoned wind, the four northeastern provinces have increased. Among them, Jilin abandoned wind rate is still ranked first in the province during this period of abandoned wind rate of 35.24%, representing some 10% higher.
Back in 2012, the domestic wind power generating capacity of 100.4 billion kwh for the first time more than 98.2 billion kwh of nuclear power, wind power and become the third largest power supply structure. This also means that the power of wind power in the whole structure, occupies a pivotal position. With electricity, the growth of distributed wind power and offshore wind construction of UHV transmission lines, wind power accounted for will be upside. Also, because currently facing the reality of abandoned wind power rationing problem, whether it is wind power development companies or local governments also have a more rational view of wind power problems.
Abandoned wind and Analysis
2010 was an important turning point in the domestic wind power industry. Mainly because of the wind power industry, the main contradiction, has grown from the original fight large-scale and speed of wind power installed capacity, how to eliminate contradictions turning of wind power and construction speed. That year, China's total installed capacity of 44.733 million kilowatts fan surpass the U.S. as the world's first installed. Meanwhile, the abandoned wind power rationing becomes more obvious new problems. According to statistics, the national disposable air volume reached 3.943 billion kwh. Thus, the domestic wind power began in disputes distressed and glory, the former hard-line.
Specifically, the past five years, the domestic wind power rationing abandoned the following characteristics:
First, whether it is discarded or abandoned air volume rate of change of the wind, have presented a similar "parabola" trend. In 2010, the abandoned air volume and rate of abandoned wind gradually increased; peaked in 2012, was 20.822 billion kwh, compared with the previous year out of the 8.522 billion kwh, the last two years is showing a declining trend; Among them, 2013 discard rate in the wind at about 10%, essentially flat with 2010;
The second is closely related to the amount of abandoned wind turbine installations. 2012 abandoned domestic air volume reached a historical peak, which a year ago, more than one billion kilowatts installed capacity of wind turbines is still unprecedented. As we all know, even though in 2013 the abandoned air flow has improved, but it can not be ignored is that the fan installed capacity this year has reached 900 million kilowatts. To this end, we need to worry about a similar tragedy in 2012 abandoned the wind will probably be repeated in 2014.
Third, abandoned wind though people worried, but did not hide its power to improve the proportion of the entire structure. At present, the domestic wind power generating capacity in the whole power structure, the proportion is less than 3%, but in 2012, wind power generation capacity has surpassed the 98.2 billion kwh of nuclear power, the third largest, following the main thermal power and hydroelectric power after.
Data from CREIA show: in 2013, wind power accounted for 2.5% of the country's various energy generating capacity, following the thermal power, hydropower's third-largest power. Thermal power is still the highest of 78.5%.
According to incomplete statistics, in 2011 China Wind Power abandoned air volume over 10 billion kwh, equivalent to loss of 3.3 million tons of standard coal. From the statistical data, the amount of abandoned wind alone, Gansu, Inner Mongolia, Jilin and Heilongjiang four provinces, it reached 50% of the country's total wind abandoned. The abandoned air volume above 10 provinces, accounting for more than 60 percent of the country.
For traditional old wind provinces Gansu, Inner Mongolia, since the "Three Gorges of wind power", the construction of one million kilowatts of wind power base, so here the total installed capacity of wind power is expanding rapidly. Especially in Inner Mongolia 16,244,400 kilowatts of installed capacity, so that other regions catch up.
However, in 2011, also after 2009 fans of quality problems, the most frequent accidents in the field of wind power a year. According to CREIA statistics show that from January to August 2011, the national wind power off Wang Shi reached 193 times. Among them, the most obvious areas there have been many times comes off Gansu Wang Shi. As the first wind farm in Gansu west of the accident, resulting in 598 units typhoon off the net loss of 840,400 kilowatts. We can say that this period abandoned wind wind power brownouts and off Wang Shi, causing wind power grid security concerns, abandoned wind power rationing is undoubtedly a big factor.
In fact, in 2011, installed the fastest growing Ningxia, the cumulative growth rate of 144 percent, followed by Shandong 72.96, followed by Xinjiang, Hebei and Heilongjiang. This year, the installed capacity of wind power in Sichuan Province to achieve a breakthrough.
In 2012, the biggest feature is that it is a domestic wind power rationing ever abandoned the worst of the year. According to China Wind Energy Association statistics, as of the end of 2012, the country abandoned wind power rationing due to the loss of 20.8 billion kwh of electricity, more than doubling in 2011, the direct economic losses of 100 billion yuan.
Although Jilin not be compared with the total installed capacity in Inner Mongolia, Gansu, but its rate of abandoned wind leapt to the top. Its 20.49% and 21.79% after one year, compared to the previous year, 32% of the rate of abandoned wind is rare. This is not only with the rapid growth of installed capacity in Jilin, but also with its limited absorptive capacity of poor outgoing relevant.
According to Bureau of Statistics data show that in Jilin Province, Jilin Province, then society as a whole accumulated only 15.239 billion kwh of electricity, an increase of 0.1%. And which of the four northeastern provinces of Jilin, abandoned wind rate above 10%. When I have gathered the most wind power in Jilin City visited White found that the region gathered Huadian, Datang, Guodian, China Guangdong Nuclear Wind Power and many other development companies. At the same time, the local thermal power plants still need to buy coal from nearby provinces, as fuel.
This year, Yunnan has become due to the wind and had to abandon the provinces concerned. As hydropower province, Yunnan hydropower installed capacity reached 34.27 million kilowatts, accounting for a total installed capacity of 49.95 million kilowatts of electricity of 69%. Hydroelectric power generation capacity of 52.873 billion kwh year, according to the CEC forecast, 2013 Yunnan abandoned flood water reached 7 million kilowatts installed capacity. In fact, as the province had water and electricity are facing pressure to abandon the water, whether it is necessary large-scale development of wind power, is debatable. Apart from Yunnan, Shanxi, Guizhou and other places, there have been varying degrees of abandoned wind.
2013, abandoned the country because of the amount of wind power rationing caused by abandoned wind was 16.231 billion kwh, down 4.6 billion kwh, abandoned wind was 10.7%, down 6 percent overall, compared with the previous year the rate of abandoned wind than improved.
According to CREIA, said in 2013 the country's electricity load growth, consumptive capacity enhancement; while winter temperatures up high, peaking pressure less heating. More importantly, the power sector to improve the thermal power peaking capacity and speed up grid construction.
In fact, in the case of abandoned wind situation improves overall last year, and was ranked in Hebei abandoned wind increased. This is mainly lies in the Zhangjiakou region power delivery channel reaches saturation. To this end, in August last year, the state formally approved the Zhangjiakou three 500 kV outgoing channel of wind power projects. Expected to early 2015, with the completion of the project to increase the transport capacity of wind power about 1.8 million kilowatts, Zhang northern regions abandoned wind power rationing will also be resolved.
At the same time, although the first half of 2013, Jilin Province utilization hours of coal-fired power representing a decrease of approximately 85 hours, in part to improve the abandoned wind power rationing. But this year, Liaoning Hongyanhe two million-kilowatt nuclear power plant nuclear power units and networks, the future will have two million-kilowatt generating units put into use, as the first nuclear power plant in Northeast China, it will not only Liaoning local wind turbine power grab, even for outgoing Jilin wind also caused a certain degree of pressure.
According to incomplete statistics, in 2014 wind power capacity is expected to be the peak year. Wind power installed capacity is expected to more than 18 million kilowatts, or is expected to exceed 2010 levels of 18.9 million kilowatts, reaching record highs.
Statistics show, ranking first quarter of Liaoning, Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia has gained various degrees. Which, by the fifth position in Heilongjiang Province into second, abandoned wind increased from 14.61% up to 24.82%. In addition, Jilin abandoned wind rate reached an unprecedented 35.24%. Does this herald the entire northeast region will occupy a high rate of abandoned wind.
In fact, the "five-second" Northeast since the total electricity consumption with an average annual increase of 5.6%, but net annual growth of 25.3% wind power, wind power growth rate is much higher than the growth of local electricity demand. According to CEC power supply and demand forecasts show: 2014 sent by post to participate in the balance of power, the Northeast power supply surplus still reached 20 million kilowatts, plus delivery outside of insufficient capacity, the wind situation is still very grim abandoned.
In addition, the rate of abandoned wind Gansu has obviously improved. Ranked first in the 2011, ranked second last year, dropped to seventh place in the first quarter of this year. In our opinion, with the completion of a number of transmission channels (including Xinjiang Hami - 750 kV transmission Jiuquan, Gansu and Xinjiang and the northwest passage main network of 750 kV interconnection line), etc. for the Gansu Wind Power outgoing open channel.
Meanwhile, in the provinces last year, new wind power installed capacity, the new installed capacity of Gansu ranked ninth, only 617,000 kilowatts, perhaps this is the root cause of the Gansu Wind discard rate in the first quarter decline, that does not mean this year Gansu abandoned wind rate is certainly low.
2014, with "five" the fourth installment plan proposed wind power projects approved under fat, total approved amount of domestic wind power will reach about 165 million kilowatts, of which about 90 million kilowatts of wind power projects under construction. From the current situation, the development of wind power consumptive conditions are good in the eastern part of the transfer. Among them, Shanxi, Xinjiang, Jiangsu, Hunan, Guangdong, add the amount of the approved rapid growth; additional amount approved in Inner Mongolia, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Yunnan decline, while Jilin, Inner Mongolia Wind Power Project is abandoned domestic wind power rationing hardest hit.
Limit for abandoned wind power, there are two solutions: First, to increase local power load, wind power demonstration project to build heating; Second, the construction of cross-transmission of the channel, the wind power delivered to the load centers in eastern China.
For the four northeastern provinces, in order to deal with abandoned wind power rationing situation on the ground at the same time be able to combine local, national heating in actively promoting wind power projects. 2012 winter and Datang Jilin Taonan, Huadian Coble town, Longyuan Shenyang Faku has operations and other projects. Early 2013, the National Energy Board issued again "on efforts to clean wind power heating work notice" to encourage the use of wind power priority new construction clean heating technology to support the use of clean wind power technology to replace the existing coal-fired heating boiler heating, and strive to use 2 3-year time limit so abandoned wind power issues are better.
In fact, there are quite a lot of wind power heating controversy. First, whether wind power is the most economical heating solution. It was calculated that an account, wind power electricity for heating needs 0.1 yuan / kWh about flat with heating costs to existing coal-fired boilers, however, even with low power heating, electricity costs are 0.4 yuan grid so, the economy is debatable;
Secondly, many people questioned, with clean wind power to the heating, there is the suspicion of high-quality low-quality energy becomes energy. Nevertheless, in the absence of sufficient outgoing and consumptive reality, wind power is one way to effectively use the heating of wind power, it is worth exploring.
With the construction of the future to strengthen the transmission grid "Three North", especially built UHV will become the main channel of wind sent, abandoned wind Northwest wind power brownouts situation will be improved. Among them, the 2013 has built Hami - Zhengzhou, as well as plans to build the Jiuquan - Zhuzhou, Ningdong - Zhejiang, Xi Meng - Shandong, Xi Meng - Taizhou and other UHV lines, wind power will be sent to alleviate stress.
Despite the wind constantly abandoned annual waste a lot of wind resources, but to promote the development of wind power industry has not changed. Countries in promoting the development of large-scale centralized to centralized and decentralized power generation combined with the conversion; to onshore wind farm development and the development of offshore wind power combined with the conversion, but still insist on the development of large-scale land-based and offshore wind power demonstration principle.
October 2011, the National Development and Reform Commission Energy Research Institute released the "China Wind Power Development Roadmap 2050" and proposed wind power has already begun and will continue to be one of the main low-carbon energy technologies, energy strategy. Roadmap targets set are: 2020, 2030 and 2050, wind power capacity will reach 200 million kilowatts, 400 million kilowatts, and 10 million kilowatts, 17 percent by 2050 to meet the demand for electricity. With the future of electricity, the growth of distributed wind power offshore wind and construction of UHV transmission lines, abandoned wind power rationing will be resolved, then wind power will become one of the country's main power supply.